The globalized economy is at a critical turning point. While supply chains have only just regained stability following the pandemic, new protectionist tendencies are causing uncertainty — particularly in trade relations with China. Both in the EU and in the USA, tariffs and allegations of subsidies are once again coming into focus. For logistics companies such as FR8, which are heavily dependent on the free movement of goods, this means: increased planning uncertainty, potential cost increases and the need for strategic decisions.

The EU-China conflict: Subsidised e-mobility in sight

The European Commission is currently considering the introduction of punitive tariffs on Chinese electric cars. The background is allegations that Chinese manufacturers are gaining unfair competitive advantages through massive government subsidies. The fear: A fall in prices that puts pressure on European producers and endangers industrial sovereignty.

A corresponding anti-subsidy procedure has been ongoing since autumn 2023, and the first results could be published before summer 2025. Countries such as France and Spain in particular are in favour of tough measures, while Germany — with its highly export-oriented automotive industry — is reacting more hesitantly.

The consequences would be profound:

• Longer customs procedures and higher bureaucracy for importers.
• Shifting supply chainsto avoid tariffs.
• Increased transportation costs, particularly when alternative sources of supply (e.g. in Southeast Asia) need to be developed.

USA vs. China: The trade dispute is picking up steam again

At the same time, tensions between the USA and China are once again intensifying. President Biden recently announced that he will extend and partially increase existing punitive tariffs on Chinese products such as semiconductors, batteries and solar panels — including up to 100% for certain e-cars.

The reason is similar to that in Europe: The US government accuses China of flooding the market with state-supported products and thus endangering domestic industry. The measure is also motivated by domestic politics: protectionism is well received in the upcoming presidential election campaign.

Such measures create new challenges for international freight forwarders:

• Cost increases due to reroutings, as China-US shipments are falling, while alternative markets in Mexico or Canada are booming.
• Longer transit times, as customs procedures are becoming more complex.
• Uncertain prospects for long-term contracts, particularly in sea and air freight.

Implications for global logistics

The increasing protectionist tendencies are not only leading to price uncertainties, but also to structural changes in freight transport:

• Diversifying sources of supply: Companies are increasingly sourcing critical components in India, Vietnam or Eastern Europe.
• Nearshoring trends: Production relocations back to Europe or North America are being discussed more intensively.
• Increase in multilateral trade agreementsto avoid bilateral tensions.

For FR8, this means: increased demand for advice, strategic adjustment of transport corridors and a growing need for flexibility — whether through multimodal transport, short-term transfers or adapted customs documentation.