The world's oceans are the backbone of global trade. Over 80% of global goods traffic is transported by ship. Containers full of electronics, machines, textiles, raw materials and food travel millions of nautical miles a day — quickly, cost-effectively and in huge dimensions. But this apparent self-evident nature is vulnerable. Piracy, geopolitical conflicts and security risks threaten the stability of maritime trade routes and thus the supply of the global economy.

Piracy — an old risk in a new form

Piracy is often regarded as a relic of past centuries, but the reality is different. Attacks continue to occur, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea (West Africa) and the Horn of Africa (near Somalia). While attacks in the Indian Ocean due to international naval operations have declined sharply in recent years, West Africa has now become a focal point.

The attacks focus less on hijacking entire ships and more often on kidnapping crew members followed by ransom extortion. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), over 120 reported attacks were received in 2023 alone. The number of unreported cases is likely to be significantly higher.

Geopolitical crises as a factor of uncertainty

Not only are pirates endangering shipping traffic, but also geopolitical conflicts. The situation in the Red Sea and around the Strait of Bab al-Mandab is currently particularly impressive. Attacks by the Houthi rebels on merchant ships have meant that many shipping companies have to take the detour around the Cape of Good Hope — an additional distance of up to 6,000 kilometers and a loss of time of around two weeks.

Tensions are also rising in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The region is one of the most important trade routes in the world: Around a third of global maritime trade passes through these waters. Should there be a military escalation here, the global economy would face massive upheavals.

Costs due to uncertainty

Uncertain routes are directly reflected in rising costs. For shipping companies, this means higher insurance premiums, longer transport routes, additional fuel consumption and more personnel costs. Import and export companies must also reckon with the fact that delivery times are less predictable and that transport prices may explode in times of crisis.

The consequences for the global economy are serious: Even minor disruptions can shake supply chains — a phenomenon that we experienced during the pandemic and when the Suez Canal was blocked by the Ever Given have experienced.

Strategies to minimize risks

The industry is responding to these challenges with a series of measures:

• Naval escorts and international cooperation: Warships from the EU, NATO and other nations secure vulnerable regions, for example as a result of Operation Atalanta off Somalia.
• Technological solutions: Modern ships are equipped with radar, drones and satellite monitoring to identify potential threats at an early stage.
• Route adjustment: Shipping companies are increasingly setting flexible timetables in order to be able to avoid dangerous regions at short notice.
• crew training: Crews are specifically trained for emergency scenarios — from safe hiding in the “Citadel Room” to communication protocols with international emergency services.
• Insurance and risk management: Specialized policies cover damage caused by piracy or acts of war, but this contributes to increasing overall costs.

future prospects

Maritime security will remain one of the key issues in the logistics sector in the coming years. Forecasts assume that Trouble spots are not disappearing, but are more likely to shift. At the same time, dependence on maritime trade is growing — not least as a result of global demand for raw materials, energy and consumer goods.

New technologies could help to minimize risks. Artificial intelligence (AI) helps with route planning to avoid conflict zones. Digital twins simulate security situations in real time and enable quick decisions. In addition, shipping companies are increasingly relying on international partnerships to show strength together.