Trade between Europe and South America is an integral part of global supply chains for many industries — from automotive parts and machinery to chemicals and agricultural products. Attention is all the greater when the political framework is ambiguous. The discussion about the EU-Mercosur agreement is currently causing exactly this uncertainty: When will simplified trading conditions actually come into force — and what interim solutions can be expected?

For logistics and transport, this is more than just a political issue. Because as soon as companies can no longer plan reliably, accounting logics, lead times, safety stocks — and ultimately costs and service levels — change.

Retail needs reliability — especially over long distances

Transatlantic supply chains to Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay are naturally complex. Sea routes mean longer transit times, multiple transfer points and often multi-modal connection chains. If it is also unclear whether certain tariff advantages or regulatory simplifications are effective, planning becomes even more demanding.

Even minor blurs can intensify along the chain: A missing document, an unclear origin constellation or a different commodity tariff number can lead to additional demands, inspections and delays. In practice, it is therefore often not the transport itself that tilts — but the reliability of administrative processes.

Customs and documentation: The silent bottleneck

Free trade agreements are often combined with the reduction of tariffs. But for logistics processes, a second factor is at least as important: standardization and simplification of documentation, procedures and rules. This is precisely where the operational relevance lies.

If trade conditions remain uncertain, many companies have a “wait and see” attitude: Import and export processes are calculated more carefully, compliance checks are expanded, and internal approval loops increase in sensitive product groups. For transports, this means more lead time — and therefore less flexibility to reallocate capacities at short notice.

Sea freight: Between timetable logic and volatility

On Europe-South America routes, as everywhere in liner shipping, the following applies: Capacity can be planned — but not limitless. When companies prefer or withhold shipments due to uncertain regulations, there are short-term volume waves. This can lead to stronger peaks: bookings are becoming more short-term, alternative ports are gaining in importance, and the required buffer time increases.

As a result, the risk profile in ports is also changing: longer residence times, more effort involved in document reconciliation and increased requirements for coordinating pre- and post-processing. Especially for time-critical industrial goods or parts for production chains, additional days in transit can have significant effects.

Preliminary application: Opportunity for relief — but not without discussion

Possible ways to apply parts of the agreement provisionally in order to make economic effects available more quickly are also currently being discussed. At the same time, legal review processes are ongoing, which can cause delays.
Any form of clarity would be helpful for logistics — even if it comes gradually. This is because even reliable transitional rules improve planning in customs, transport and storage.

It is important that transition models can stabilize operational processes, but they do not replace the need for clean data and consistent documentation. Especially when goods originate and when it comes to complex supply chain structures, the quality of documentation remains decisive.

Which industries are particularly affected

The effects are not the same in all industries. There is a high level of sensitivity in particular in the case of:

• Automotive and mechanical engineering, where supply chains run frequently and spare parts must be available quickly.
• Chemicals and specialty goods, where additional security and documentation requirements apply.
• Agricultural and food logistics, which involves time-critical factors as well as quality and cold chain requirements.

At the same time, the uncertainty also affects distribution and spare parts networks: Those who cannot reliably calculate flows of goods are more likely to build up buffers — which increases inventories and ties up capital.

What companies can do now: Stability through planning and options

As long as political processes are not completed, supply chains cannot be “secured”, but they can be made much more robust. Five levers in particular have proven effective in practice:

1. Check customs and document processes early
   Commodity tariff numbers, proofs of origin and data quality are the key to minimizing delays.
2. Plan time windows more realistically
   When it comes to transatlantic routes, crossings at ports and with authorities often determine the actual duration.
3. Set a buffer where it works
   Not every shipment needs safety inventory — but critical parts and production goods should be clearly prioritized.
4. Consider alternative routes and hubs
   Flexibility is achieved when several options are prepared, not just in the event of a malfunction.
5. Transparent communication along the chain
   Early ETA updates and clear status reports reduce subsequent errors in warehouse, production and distribution.