The Red Sea in 2026:

Since November 2023, Houthi attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea have permanently changed shipping routes between Asia and Europe. The Suez Canal, through which roughly 30 percent of global container traffic normally flows, is being avoided by most major carriers. The Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds 10 to 14 days to transit times to Hamburg. A return to normal routing in 2026 is considered unlikely, and importers need to plan accordingly.

‍

The Red Sea crisis is no longer a temporary disruption. What began as a maritime security incident in late 2023 has developed into a lasting change in global sea freight routing. For German companies importing goods from China, India and the rest of Asia, this means longer lead times, changed cost structures and planning uncertainty that shows no sign of resolving in the near term.

This article explains how the crisis developed, what has changed in 2026 and what importers need to factor into their supply chain planning right now.

How the crisis began and how it has developed in 2026

On 19 November 2023, Houthi forces seized their first merchant vessel in the Red Sea. Since then, according to the NGO Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, over 178 ships have been attacked, four vessels have been sunk and nine sailors have been killed. The response from major carriers was clear: Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM progressively avoided the Suez Canal and switched to the Cape of Good Hope route.

• November 2023: Houthis begin attacking merchant vessels in the Red Sea. Major carriers suspend Suez Canal transits.
• 2024: Peak attack period. Suez Canal traffic falls by approximately 50 percent year-on-year in Q1 2024. Daily ship transits through Bab el-Mandeb drop from around 70 to approximately 19.
• October 2025:  Relative calm. Houthis pause attacks following a Gaza ceasefire. Some carriers cautiously begin returning to the Suez Canal route.
• February to March 2026: Iran conflict escalates. Houthis renew threats and fire missiles toward Israel. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspend planned Suez Canal returns. USS Gerald R. Ford deployed to the Red Sea in March 2026.
• April to May 2026: Bab el-Mandeb remains at elevated threat level. Suez Canal traffic is approximately 60 percent below pre-crisis levels. Analysts assess a large-scale return in 2026 as unlikely.

Current assessment: The Soufan Center rates a resumption of Houthi attacks as almost certain if the Gaza ceasefire collapses. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand has described a large-scale return to the Suez Canal in 2026 as unlikely. Importers should not base their planning on a normalisation of routes.

What the rerouting means in practice: transit times and capacity

The Cape of Good Hope detour adds approximately 4,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days to an Asia-Europe voyage. A full container shipment from China to Hamburg that normally takes around 28 to 35 days via Suez now takes approximately 38 to 48 days via the Cape.

The longer routes have a second, less visible effect: effective global container capacity falls. Because more vessels are simultaneously occupied on longer voyages, fewer slots are available for new bookings at any given moment. Analysts estimate the crisis has reduced available global container capacity by approximately 20 percent, which affects both availability and booking lead times.

For importers planning shipments from China, this has three direct consequences:

• Lead times are longer than before 2024, affecting inventory planning and replenishment cycles
• Booking lead times should be extended to at least four weeks, longer during peak season
• Just-in-time supply chains built around tight delivery windows carry significantly higher risk

‍

Impact on sea freight costs: War Risk and BAF

Alongside the longer transit times, the crisis has also permanently changed the cost structure. Two surcharges that barely existed before 2024 are now standard line items in every Asia-Europe shipment calculation.

The War Risk Surcharge is levied because certain routes and zones are classified as elevated war risk areas. Insurance costs for vessels in these areas rise considerably, and carriers pass this on to shippers. BIMCO, the world's largest international shipping association, has warned that war risk premiums would increase sharply again if attacks resume.

The BAF (Bunker Adjustment Factor) reflects the higher fuel costs of the longer Cape route. More nautical miles means more bunker consumption, which carriers recover through the BAF.

Neither of these is a temporary cost anymore. Both are permanent components that belong in every import budget. Shippers who do not account for them will consistently underestimate total shipment costs. Any complete cost breakdown for a shipment should show all surcharges separately and transparently before any booking is confirmed.

What importers should do now

The Red Sea situation is too complex and too dynamic to be resolved with a one-time adjustment to planning. It requires ongoing monitoring and closer coordination between importer and freight forwarder than was necessary before 2024.

The following measures have proven effective in practice:

• Increase booking lead time: Book at least four weeks before the desired departure date, even earlier for peak season shipments
• Adjust stock buffers: Extended lead times of up to 48 days need to be reflected in inventory planning
• Treat War Risk and BAF as permanent costs: Do not budget for them as exceptional items while the situation remains unresolved
• Assess routing daily: Whether Suez Canal or Cape, the best option depends on the security situation at the time of booking and can change quickly
• Ensure communication during transit: When the situation changes mid-voyage, response options must be in place

How FR8 Logistik GmbH manages the crisis for your shipments

FR8 Logistik GmbH is an international sea freight forwarder based in Hamburg, a member of the DSLV (German Freight Forwarding and Logistics Association) and the Association of Hamburg Freight Forwarders (VHSp). We monitor the Red Sea situation daily and update routing recommendations for every shipment accordingly.

In practice this means: when you book a shipment from China or India, you receive a current assessment of the route, covering transit time, available carriers and all applicable surcharges at that point. If the security situation changes during an ongoing transport, your fixed contact at FR8 reaches out immediately to discuss what has changed and what options are available.

For imports from China and India, we manage the entire transport process: from coordinating with our agent partners on the ground through to sea freight, customs clearance and delivery in Germany. If you want to review your current shipping plan or request a quote, get in touch with us. You will receive a concrete response within 24 hours.

Good to know: The Red Sea situation is equally relevant for imports from India. The fastest sea route from Indian ports such as Nhava Sheva or Mundra to Hamburg also passes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. India shipments face the same extended transit times and cost components as China routes.

Frequently asked questions about the Red Sea crisis and your sea freight

Why are shipping lines still avoiding the Suez Canal in 2026?

The Houthis have attacked over 178 merchant vessels since November 2023, sinking four ships and killing nine sailors. After a relative pause from October 2025 following a Gaza ceasefire, they renewed threats in February and March 2026, linked to the escalating Iran conflict. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended planned returns to the Suez Canal. The Bab el-Mandeb remains at an elevated threat level and analysts consider a large-scale return to the Suez Canal in 2026 to be unlikely.

How much longer does sea freight from China to Hamburg take due to the Red Sea situation?

The Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds approximately 10 to 14 days compared to the normal Suez Canal route. A voyage that typically takes around 28 to 35 days now takes approximately 38 to 48 days via the Cape. The crisis has also reduced effective global container capacity by an estimated 20 percent, as more vessels are tied up on longer routes at any given time.

What is the War Risk Surcharge and how long will it apply?

The War Risk Surcharge is a fee carriers levy to cover elevated insurance costs on routes classified as high-risk zones. It has been a permanent fixture on the Asia-Europe route since late 2023 and should not be treated as a temporary line item. BIMCO has warned that insurance premiums would increase sharply again in the event of a new escalation. As long as the situation remains unresolved, this cost belongs in every import budget.

Is a return to the Suez Canal route realistic in 2026?

The situation remains fragile. After a pause from October 2025, the Houthis renewed threats in February and March 2026. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand has described a large-scale return as unlikely. The Soufan Center rates a resumption of attacks as almost certain if the Gaza ceasefire collapses. Importers should not plan on a normalisation of the route.

How should importers respond to longer transit times?

Practical measures include: extending booking lead times to at least four weeks before the desired departure, adjusting stock levels to account for transit times of up to 48 days, treating War Risk and BAF as permanent budget items, and working closely with an experienced freight forwarder who evaluates routing options daily. Flexible supply chain planning has become more important than a just-in-time approach.